Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon: Stats, xG & 2026-27 Projection
How do Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon compare? Last season McDavid put up 138 points to MacKinnon's 127, with 5v5 expected-goals shares of 56.5% and 59.2%. See the full stat-by-stat breakdown below, or open the interactive Compare tool for in-depth stats, goal maps, and career trajectories.
| 82 | Games played | 80 |
| 48 | Goals | 53 |
| 90 | Assists | 74 |
| 138 | Points | 127 |
| 1.68 | Points per game | 1.59 |
| 23.0 | Ice time / game (min) | 22.3 |
| 2.46 | 5v5 points / 60 | 3.42 |
| 56.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 59.2% |
| 46.6 | Individual xG | 40.0 |
| +1.4 | Finishing (G - xG) | +13.0 |
| 133 | 2026-27 projected points | 123 |
How they compare
McDavid was the more productive scorer in 2025-26, outpointing MacKinnon by 11 (138 to 127). McDavid posted a 48-90-138 line at 1.68 points per game, while MacKinnon went 53-74-127 at 1.59. At 5-on-5 they diverge on impact: MacKinnon tilted the ice with a 59.2% expected-goals share to 56.5% for McDavid. MacKinnon was the sharper finisher, scoring +13.0 goals relative to expected next to +1.4 for McDavid. For 2026-27, HighDanger's model projects McDavid at 133 points, ahead of MacKinnon at 123. On balance, McDavid grades as the stronger pick heading into 2026-27, though the table above and the interactive tool let you weigh the categories that matter most to you.
Stats from the 2025-26 NHL season plus HighDanger metrics and 2026-27 projections. The better value in each row is highlighted. Full interactive charts and trends are in the Compare tool.