Nathan MacKinnon vs Auston Matthews: Stats, xG & 2026-27 Projection
How do Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews compare? Last season MacKinnon put up 127 points to Matthews's 53, with 5v5 expected-goals shares of 59.2% and 48.3%. See the full stat-by-stat breakdown below, or open the interactive Compare tool for in-depth stats, goal maps, and career trajectories.
| 80 | Games played | 60 |
| 53 | Goals | 27 |
| 74 | Assists | 26 |
| 127 | Points | 53 |
| 1.59 | Points per game | 0.88 |
| 22.3 | Ice time / game (min) | 20.8 |
| 3.42 | 5v5 points / 60 | 1.96 |
| 59.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.3% |
| 40.0 | Individual xG | 30.9 |
| +13.0 | Finishing (G - xG) | -3.9 |
| 123 | 2026-27 projected points | 81 |
How they compare
MacKinnon was the more productive scorer in 2025-26, outpointing Matthews by 74 (127 to 53). MacKinnon posted a 53-74-127 line at 1.59 points per game, while Matthews went 27-26-53 at 0.88. At 5-on-5 they diverge on impact: MacKinnon tilted the ice with a 59.2% expected-goals share to 48.3% for Matthews. MacKinnon was the sharper finisher, scoring +13.0 goals relative to expected next to -3.9 for Matthews. For 2026-27, HighDanger's model projects MacKinnon at 123 points, ahead of Matthews at 81. On balance, MacKinnon grades as the stronger pick heading into 2026-27, though the table above and the interactive tool let you weigh the categories that matter most to you.
Stats from the 2025-26 NHL season plus HighDanger metrics and 2026-27 projections. The better value in each row is highlighted. Full interactive charts and trends are in the Compare tool.