The 2026 NHL Draft is about a month out. For most teams the picture is already in: rosters have aged through another season, the prospect pool is what it is, and front offices know which slots they need to fill. This is the first of four articles, one per division, looking at every team through the same data lens: who qualifies as top-6, who qualifies as top-4, who is under 25, who is in the pipeline, and what that all says about the team's draft lean.
How to read the data
Each team gets a card below with four columns: Forwards, Defense, Goaltending, and Draft Lean. The Top-6: N and Top-4: N counts tell you how many players cleared the production bar at each position. The colored pill beside the count is the average age of that group: green for healthy, amber for trending older, red for aging out.
What it means to qualify
- Top-6 forward: 20+ games played AND at least 0.55 points per game this season.
- Top-4 defenseman: 20+ games played, at least 0.25 points per game, AND average ice time of 17:30 or more per game.
- Under 25: active NHL player under 25 years old, regardless of games played. Captures both the franchise-building tier (Power, Sanderson, Knies) and the call-ups.
- Top prospects: ranked from each team's prospect pool by current-season points within their league. Skater prospects are tiered AHL first, then NCAA, then KHL, then everything else. Goalie prospects stay in NCAA / AHL only, with OHL / WHL / QMJHL as a fallback if the team has fewer than two in primary leagues. Players with 20+ NHL games this season are filtered out as graduates.
The right-most column is the draft lean. It is never goaltending. In modern drafts only a goalie or two goes in round 1, so even teams with shaky goalie depth get pointed at forward or defense, with a "Watch G depth" note when it is warranted.
A full division-wide overview table sits at the bottom of the article if you want to scan everyone at a glance.
Team by team
Boston Bruins · Defense (priority)
Georgii Merkulov AHL 70gp · 24G · 61P
Fabian Lysell AHL 57gp · 17G · 42P
Michael Callahan AHL 56gp · 2G · 16P
Mason Langenbrunner NCAA 32gp · 2G · 10P
Korpisalo (32) 31gp 0.894
The Bruins look fine up front: six qualifying top-6 forwards at an average age of 29.3, with James Hagens (2025 #7 overall) already in his first NHL minutes. Dean Letourneau, the 2024 first-rounder, is producing in the NCAA at 22 goals and 39 points in 36 games. Fabian Lysell remains an AHL scorer chasing his NHL look. The forward pipeline runs deep.
The defense is the problem. Boston has zero qualifying under-25 defensemen on the active roster. The top-4 D averages 29.2 with no internal replacement, and the prospect cupboard is built around Frederic Brunet (AHL) and Mason Langenbrunner (NCAA). Neither projects as a 2026-27 top-4 fix. If the Bruins want to extend the window past Pastrnak's prime, this draft has to yield a defenseman who can grow into a top-4 role within three seasons.
Buffalo Sabres · BPA
Matteo Costantini AHL 33gp · 6G · 9P
Stiven Sardarian NCAA 37gp · 12G · 44P
Nikita Novikov AHL 50gp · 6G · 18P
Vsevolod Komarov AHL 55gp · 4G · 11P
Luukkonen (27) 35gp 0.910
Buffalo arguably has the best young roster in the Atlantic. Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich, Konsta Helenius, Radim Mrtka. Every recent first-rounder is still in the org, and the top-6 forward group averages 26.8, the youngest in the division.
That makes 2026 a luxury-pick year for Buffalo. No position is screaming. The forward pipeline is solid (Sardarian at NCAA, Nadeau in the AHL). Even goaltending has Luukkonen freshly graduated and Lyon as veteran cover. The Sabres' job at the draft is to take the best player on the board and let scouting eat. Watch goalie depth long-term, but do not reach for one in round 1.
Detroit Red Wings · Forward (priority)
Amadeus Lombardi AHL 47gp · 16G · 42P
Carter Mazur AHL 16gp · 11G · 16P
Anton Johansson SHL 42gp · 5G · 17P
Talbot (38) 34gp 0.883
Trey Augustine NCAA 34gp · 0.929 SV% · 2.11 GAA
Detroit's forward depth has contracted hard. Only four forwards qualified as top-6 caliber this year (Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, and Patrick Kane) at an average age of 29.5. That is a problem when the contention window depends on Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, both still early in their primes.
The good news: the forward pipeline is healthy. Carter Bear, the 2025 #13 pick, put up 77 points in 53 WHL games. Amadeus Lombardi has 42 points in the AHL. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has 14 NHL games already. Defense and goaltending look much better than the surface stats suggest, with Sandin-Pellikka and Edvinsson both graduated and Trey Augustine carrying a 0.929 SV% in the NCAA. The lean is forward, and there is enough on the board at Detroit's slot to address it.
Florida Panthers · Defense (priority)
Sandis Vilmanis AHL 48gp · 17G · 38P
Gracyn Sawchyn AHL 35gp · 6G · 23P
Marek Alscher AHL 52gp · 3G · 11P
Ludvig Jansson AHL 31gp · 3G · 11P
Tarasov (27) 33gp 0.895
Kirill Gerasimyuk AHL 19gp · 0.901 SV% · 2.50 GAA
Tyler Muszelik NCAA 35gp · 0.926 SV% · 2.21 GAA
The reigning Cup champs are not invincible. Florida's qualifying top-4 D is just three names with an average age of 30.0 (Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, Niko Mikkola). Aleksander Barkov's prime window stays open another three years, but the blue line does not renew naturally without help.
Florida is cap-strapped, so drafting young defense has leverage that drafting a forward does not. The prospect cupboard is forward-heavy (Devine and Vilmanis in the AHL), and the goalie depth is unusually strong (Cooper Black, Tyler Muszelik, Kirill Gerasimyuk all above 0.900). The Panthers do not need to draft a goalie. They should draft a defenseman.
Montreal Canadiens · BPA
Michael Hage NCAA 39gp · 13G · 52P
Sean Farrell AHL 72gp · 17G · 53P
David Reinbacher AHL 57gp · 5G · 24P
William Trudeau AHL 62gp · 8G · 20P
Montembeault (29) 25gp 0.872
Emmett Croteau NCAA 24gp · 0.922 SV% · 1.93 GAA
Quentin Miller NCAA 25gp · 0.916 SV% · 2.39 GAA
Montreal's rebuild paid off. The Habs reached the Eastern Conference Final this year, and the under-25 column is the deepest in the division at every position. Ivan Demidov (graduated, 82 NHL GP). Juraj Slafkovsky (graduated). Lane Hutson, Adam Engstrom, David Reinbacher all under 25 on D. Michael Hage in the NCAA at 1.33 points per game. Jacob Fowler is the AHL goalie of the future.
No position has a hole. Montreal's draft pick should go to whichever skater they believe has the highest ceiling, regardless of position. Best player available is the lean, full stop. The next phase of this build is converting depth into deeper playoff runs, not patching roster gaps.
Ottawa Senators · BPA
Owen Beckner NCAA 30gp · 8G · 23P
Tyson Dyck NCAA 26gp · 5G · 15P
Jorian Donovan AHL 61gp · 4G · 21P
Tomas Hamara AHL 48gp · 4G · 6P
Meriläinen (23) 20gp 0.860
Ottawa is healthier than people outside the org realize. Brady Tkachuk is 26, Tim Stutzle is 23, Jake Sanderson is 23, Drake Batherson is 27, Josh Norris is 26. Carter Yakemchuk (2024 #7) and Logan Hensler (2025 #23) are both still in the pipeline. Even the goaltending has Leevi Merilainen as a credible internal answer.
This is a continuation draft for Ottawa, not a course correction. Take the best player available, fold them into the development pipeline, and trust the shape of a team that just made the playoffs. Goalie depth is the minor flag, but as noted, this is not the year to reach for a netminder.
Tampa Bay Lightning · Defense (lean), Watch G
Mitchell Chaffee AHL 54gp · 24G · 57P
Ethan Gauthier AHL 56gp · 12G · 27P
Warren Clark NCAA 33gp · 2G · 6P
Daniil Pylenkov KHL 64gp · 9G · 54P
Johansson (30) 25gp 0.884
Tampa's window is the most precarious in the Atlantic. Victor Hedman is 35. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 31. Nikita Kucherov is 32. Brayden Point is 30. The qualifying top-4 D is still intact at five names, but the youngest under-25 defenseman in the organization is Maxim Groshev in the AHL. That is a problem three years out.
Cap space is the perpetual Tampa story, so drafting cheap young defense has unusual leverage. The forward pipeline is fine (Duke, Chaffee, Gauthier all producing in the AHL). Goaltending is the more existential concern long-term, but the modern draft rarely rewards reaching for a goalie. Lean defense, and watch the goalie market in free agency.
Toronto Maple Leafs · Defense (critical)
Semyon Kizimov KHL 52gp · 11G · 25P
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev KHL 33gp · 2G · 23P
Noah Chadwick AHL 68gp · 5G · 23P
Topi Niemela SHL 52gp · 4G · 18P
Stolarz (32) 26gp 0.893
Hildeby (24) 20gp 0.914
Toronto has the most painful data row of any Atlantic team. The qualifying top-4 D is just three names with an average age of 32.7, the highest in the division. Auston Matthews and William Nylander are still in their primes, but the defensive support is collapsing around them. The Leafs spent 2023's first round on Easton Cowan, who graduated to a regular role this year. The 2024 first-rounder, Ben Danford, missed nearly his entire OHL season with injury.
Here is the twist: Toronto holds the 1st overall pick in 2026, and the projected top of the board is Gavin McKenna, a forward. You do not pass on a high skilled forward to fill a positional need, so the data lean says defense but the actual pick almost certainly says McKenna. That leaves the rest of the draft and any trade-up windows to address the blue line.
The defense pipeline is real but thin: Topi Niemela in the SHL, Noah Chadwick in the AHL. Neither projects as a 2026-27 top-4 fix. Dennis Hildeby's emergence as a credible NHL goalie (24, 20 GP, 0.914 SV%, plus 8.31 GSAx) means goaltending is not the fire it would be on another team. Defense is, and they will need to find their answer somewhere other than the first round.
The overview
The whole division at a glance, every team in one table.
Georgii Merkulov AHL 70gp · 24G · 61P
Fabian Lysell AHL 57gp · 17G · 42P
Michael Callahan AHL 56gp · 2G · 16P
Mason Langenbrunner NCAA 32gp · 2G · 10P
Korpisalo (32) 31gp 0.894
Matteo Costantini AHL 33gp · 6G · 9P
Stiven Sardarian NCAA 37gp · 12G · 44P
Nikita Novikov AHL 50gp · 6G · 18P
Vsevolod Komarov AHL 55gp · 4G · 11P
Luukkonen (27) 35gp 0.910
Amadeus Lombardi AHL 47gp · 16G · 42P
Carter Mazur AHL 16gp · 11G · 16P
Anton Johansson SHL 42gp · 5G · 17P
Talbot (38) 34gp 0.883
Trey Augustine NCAA 34gp · 0.929 SV% · 2.11 GAA
Sandis Vilmanis AHL 48gp · 17G · 38P
Gracyn Sawchyn AHL 35gp · 6G · 23P
Marek Alscher AHL 52gp · 3G · 11P
Ludvig Jansson AHL 31gp · 3G · 11P
Tarasov (27) 33gp 0.895
Kirill Gerasimyuk AHL 19gp · 0.901 SV% · 2.50 GAA
Tyler Muszelik NCAA 35gp · 0.926 SV% · 2.21 GAA
Michael Hage NCAA 39gp · 13G · 52P
Sean Farrell AHL 72gp · 17G · 53P
David Reinbacher AHL 57gp · 5G · 24P
William Trudeau AHL 62gp · 8G · 20P
Montembeault (29) 25gp 0.872
Emmett Croteau NCAA 24gp · 0.922 SV% · 1.93 GAA
Quentin Miller NCAA 25gp · 0.916 SV% · 2.39 GAA
Owen Beckner NCAA 30gp · 8G · 23P
Tyson Dyck NCAA 26gp · 5G · 15P
Jorian Donovan AHL 61gp · 4G · 21P
Tomas Hamara AHL 48gp · 4G · 6P
Meriläinen (23) 20gp 0.860
Mitchell Chaffee AHL 54gp · 24G · 57P
Ethan Gauthier AHL 56gp · 12G · 27P
Warren Clark NCAA 33gp · 2G · 6P
Daniil Pylenkov KHL 64gp · 9G · 54P
Johansson (30) 25gp 0.884
Semyon Kizimov KHL 52gp · 11G · 25P
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev KHL 33gp · 2G · 23P
Noah Chadwick AHL 68gp · 5G · 23P
Topi Niemela SHL 52gp · 4G · 18P
Stolarz (32) 26gp 0.893
Hildeby (24) 20gp 0.914
Up next
The Metro article (Carolina, Columbus, New Jersey, Islanders, Rangers, Philly, Pittsburgh, Washington) is up next, followed by the Central and Pacific. If you want to argue with any of the leans above, the data is right there in the card.