Buffalo is coming into Game 5 off a huge win in the Bell Centre, winning 3-2 and changing the course of this series. After Game 3 it felt like Montreal was going to take a strangle hold of this series and had many people doubting Buffalo's skill and team. The Sabres came out of the gate hot but struggled with undisciplined penalties. Montreal struggled to take momentum back with their powerplay, converting just once on seven attempts.
One major takeaway from Game 4 would be how desperate Buffalo played to even this series. Buffalo blocked 27 shots, went 48% in the faceoff dot, and converted 22 shots into 3 goals. If they can have the same type of desperation in Game 5 while at home, they are going to set themselves up to win this series in the Bell Centre.
Storylines to watch
Buffalo's powerplay early in this series looked horrible, even hearing boos from fans in Game 1. They're currently sitting at 15% on the powerplay, even after a 50% outing in Game 4 (Benson for the GWG, and one from Tage Thompson on a dump-in from center ice after a fortuitous bounce off the glass). They do not need to change players on unit 1, but a dump-and-chase look could back off the defenders on the blueline and open things up. If a defender thinks about taking a hit to get the puck out it can lead to turnovers, and Buffalo must have better entries.
The Game 4 stat lines told the rest of the story. Buffalo blocked 27 shots, forced 6 turnovers, scored 3 goals on 22 shots, and had 2 giveaways. Montreal blocked 6 shots, had 2 takeaways, 15 giveaways, and went 1-7 on the powerplay. In the playoffs if you take your foot off the gas for just 3 minutes it can result in your season ending (right, Minnesota?). All young or inexperienced teams have this learning curve, and I am looking at Montreal to come back strong.
Where is Demidov?
We have been waiting for one Montreal star to enter the conversation, but it seems like the lights might be too bright. Demidov has yet to get anything going offensively, and that fits with a young prospect learning playoff hockey. I've been writing about Demidov in every preview waiting for the breakout, and through four games he's still looked a half step behind the play. He does look good on the powerplay when there is more open ice, but you need to be strong 5-on-5 during playoff runs.
If Demidov scores tonight to bump his slump, look for the celebration from the team. This is not just one player, but the whole team will come together because of how close this Montreal team seems to be. It will not just be a weight off his shoulders but a solid bump in morale for the whole team.
Montreal's slow starts
Montreal has fallen behind early in Games 3 and 4. Buffalo has come out of the gates hot scoring first in back-to-back games. Give Montreal credit, they battled back every time, but it is not a repeatable way to play this series. Look for Montreal to come out hot as the away team and try to suck the life out of KeyBank Center.
The atmosphere question
Finally, the sports world had the pleasure to watch the Bell Centre in all its glory. The spectacle of the torch, the chants, and the crowd pop after every goal was something you could feel, even on your couch. I expect Buffalo to try to rival this atmosphere, with beer Sabres, rollerblades, and superstar fans. Montreal fans will make the trip, but I do not expect to see a lot of red in the stands.
I hope this series makes it to seven games, but the effort Montreal puts forth will be the deciding factor in tonight's heavyweight tilt.