Montreal has a chance to punch their ticket to the Conference Finals tonight. Buffalo will look to keep their season alive after a disappointing Game 5 performance. The Canadiens have been in this spot before, coming home for a Game 6 with a chance to close it out, as they did against Tampa Bay in Round 1.
That Game 6 against the Lightning ended in a 1-0 overtime loss. Montreal played well, but Vasilevskiy was unbeatable that night. If the Canadiens can end Buffalo's season tonight, it will prove they've learned from that experience and can match the desperation and urgency of a team staring down elimination.
Buffalo swept through Round 1 against Boston in 6 games and will face elimination for the first time this postseason. The Sabres did win at the Bell Centre back in Game 4 to even the series, but after a forgettable Game 5 at home, questions around goaltending, compete level, and motivation are swirling.
Storylines
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was pulled in the third period of Game 5 after a rough outing, and I expect Alex Lyon to get the start tonight. Lyon has been Buffalo's most dependable goaltender, carrying a 2.25 GAA and .917 SV%, but his last full start was May 10th, six days ago, when he allowed five goals on 36 shots (.861 SV%). For Buffalo to have any chance, Lyon needs to be sharp early and hold Montreal to two goals or fewer.
On the other side, Jakub Dobes had a shaky start in Game 5, surrendering three of the first four shots he faced. Once he settled in, he was a brick wall, turning away the next 33 shots without allowing a goal. If he can skip the rocky opening tonight, Montreal's crease will be in good hands.
Limit the Montreal Response
Buffalo has jumped out to a 1-0 lead within the first five minutes in three straight games. Each time, Montreal has battled back. That resilience deserves credit, but it also raises a concern for the Canadiens. A playoff-ready team shouldn't need to fall behind to find its gear.
If Montreal grabs the lead early and ignites the Bell Centre, it's hard to see Buffalo clawing back. For the Sabres, learning to protect leads is the whole game. Blowing a one-goal advantage three times in Game 5 is a pattern that ends seasons. A timely stop from Lyon, a power play conversion, or a two-goal cushion might be what changes the story tonight.
A lot of credit must go to Montreal for that pushback, they battle for every puck the moment they're down. But championship teams don't wait to be trailing before they turn it on. A prime example? The team waiting in the Conference Finals: the Carolina Hurricanes. Pull the scoreboard from any Hurricanes game and you'd swear they were chasing, turns out they're usually up by two.
Stars Sparkling, Stars Fading
Montreal's top players were slow to find their footing this series, but they're hitting their stride at the right time. Cole Caufield has scored in three straight games, including his first 5-on-5 goal of the playoffs. Ivan Demidov, who struggled to generate offense through much of the series, broke through in Game 5 with a wicked release. Expect both of them to be buzzing and carrying serious momentum into tonight.
On the other side, Alex Tuch is the biggest question mark for Buffalo. He's a pending free agent, and based on this series, some teams may already be rethinking their offers. Tuch has been invisible on the top line, zero goals, zero assists, and a -8 in this series against Montreal. Tage Thompson caught heat early in the series and has shown a bit more life in recent games, but he continues to take undisciplined penalties at the worst possible moments, killing Buffalo's momentum when they need it most. Both Tuch and Thompson need to be better, significantly better, if the Sabres have any shot at a Game 7.
Final Thoughts
The numbers don't favor Buffalo. Historically, 80% of teams that win Game 5 go on to win the series. If Montreal closes it out tonight, it tells me they have the killer instinct required to make a deep run. They're wildly talented, young, and fast, but they do lack the playoff experience you see in Carolina, Colorado, and Vegas, the three teams who've already punched their Conference Finals tickets. Those teams don't let opponents stick around.
Still, the bigger picture matters. Most people didn't pick Buffalo to make the playoffs, and the Sabres went out and won the Atlantic Division. Now the doubters are back, and the Sabres are facing the wall. If they can force a Game 7, it'll take Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, and Lyon stepping into the light. Benson has carried more than his share of the load, but when the darkness is closing in, it's the letter-wearers and the guy between the pipes who have to shine brightest.