Colorado wins the Central again in 2026-27 with 120 points. Minnesota climb to 112 and Utah to 104, while Dallas fall 14 to 98 despite finishing second in the division last season.
Below is every number behind that, and the five inputs that produced it ranked one through eight.
Projected Central Division standings 2026-27
| # | Team | Record | Points | 2025-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Avalanche | 54-18-12 | 120 | 121 | -1 |
| 2 | Minnesota Wild | 50-22-12 | 112 | 104 | +8 |
| 3 | Utah Mammoth | 50-30-4 | 104 | 92 | +12 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 43-29-12 | 98 | 112 | -14 |
| 5 | Nashville Predators | 42-36-6 | 90 | 86 | +4 |
| 6 | St. Louis Blues | 38-35-11 | 87 | 86 | +1 |
| 7 | Winnipeg Jets | 36-37-11 | 83 | 82 | +1 |
| 8 | Chicago Blackhawks | 33-39-12 | 78 | 72 | +6 |
Two of these need explaining before anything else. Dallas were second in the division and finish fourth. Chicago had the worst underlying numbers in the NHL and still gain six points. Both come down to what we keep from last season and what we throw away.
The five criteria, ranked
- 1
Colorado Avalanche - 2
Utah Mammoth - 3
Minnesota Wild - 4
Dallas Stars - 5
St. Louis Blues - 6
Winnipeg Jets - 7
Nashville Predators - 8
Chicago Blackhawks
- 1Minnesota Wild
- 2Utah Mammoth
- 3Chicago Blackhawks
- 4Nashville Predators
- 5Winnipeg Jets
- 6St. Louis Blues
- 7Colorado Avalanche
- 8Dallas Stars
- 1Colorado Avalanche
- 2Minnesota Wild
- 3Dallas Stars
- 4Nashville Predators
- 5Utah Mammoth
- 6Chicago Blackhawks
- 7St. Louis Blues
- 8Winnipeg Jets
- 1Chicago Blackhawks
- 2Dallas Stars
- 3St. Louis Blues
- 4Colorado Avalanche
- 5Minnesota Wild
- 6Utah Mammoth
- 7Nashville Predators
- 8Winnipeg Jets
- 1Colorado Avalanche
- 2Minnesota Wild
- 3Utah Mammoth
- 4Dallas Stars
- 5Nashville Predators
- 6St. Louis Blues
- 7Winnipeg Jets
- 8Chicago Blackhawks
1. Colorado Avalanche: 120 points, 54-18-12
Colorado give up a single point on last season, and they get there having lost more than they gained.
Start with why that barely matters. They took 56.1 percent of the expected goals, second in the NHL behind only Carolina, and ran a +64.2 differential. Then they conceded 197 goals against 229 expected, so their goaltending was worth another 20 goals on top of that.
Nathan MacKinnon projects 126 points, third in the league behind McDavid and Kucherov. Cale Makar projects 88 and Martin Necas 92.
The summer then cost them. Valeri Nichushkin went to Columbus, Ross Colton and Jack Drury both to Nashville, against Jaden Schwartz arriving from Seattle at 41 projected. The net is -10, and only Dallas lost more than it replaced.
They still land on 120, which is the point. The gap between Colorado and the rest of the Central is wide enough to absorb a summer of losses almost without trace. Gabriel Landeskog missed 22 games and Schwartz 32, so there is room on top of it.
2. Minnesota Wild: 112 points, 50-22-12
Minnesota made the biggest addition in the division and it is not close.
Their net roster change of +66 projected points is the largest in the Central and fourth in the NHL, and nearly half of it is a player who was already on the roster. Quinn Hughes played 48 games for Minnesota last season and 26 for Vancouver. Next season they get all 84.
The rest came in the summer. Blake Coleman arrives from Calgary at 39 projected and Maxim Shabanov from the Islanders at 34, with Olli Maatta at 26. Out went Mats Zuccarello to Los Angeles at 47 and Jake Middleton to Calgary, a defenceman who dressed 75 times.
They were already good underneath. 51.8 percent of the expected goals and a +18.4 differential, third in the division. They put Dallas out in six last spring, then Colorado ended it in five, which is roughly where this projection leaves them: past everyone in the division except one team.
The crease is the second best in the Central at +14, and the interesting part is who is in it. Jesper Wallstedt saved 13.8 goals above expected in his first real NHL season, four times what Filip Gustavsson managed on a heavier workload. Gustavsson had hip surgery in the offseason, so Wallstedt may have the net when the season opens.
Hughes projects 97, up 21 on last season, with Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov both at 96.
3. Utah Mammoth: 104 points, 50-30-4
Utah are the quiet climb, and the second-best team in the division by chances.
Year two in Utah brought the first playoff hockey the city has seen. Vegas ended it in six. This projection sends them straight back.
They ran a +21.0 expected goal differential on 52.1 percent of the expected goals, both second only to Colorado.
Then they went shopping. Vincent Trocheck arrives from the Rangers at 63 projected and Anders Lee from the Islanders at 43, against JJ Peterka leaving for Boston at 52. The net is +28, second in the division.
Clayton Keller projects 88 and Dylan Guenther 81. Logan Cooley missed 28 games and projects 68, up 25 on last season, which is the largest single piece of upside on the roster.
The one soft spot is the crease. Karel Vejmelka faced 1,623 shots, second most in the league, and finished at +0.5 goals saved above expected. That puts Utah at +3 goals, the thinnest crease in the top half of the division. It is the one place this roster gets no help.
4. Dallas Stars: 98 points, 43-29-12
Dallas were second in the Central and finish fourth, and the reason is one number.
They scored 273 goals against 248 expected. Only Buffalo finished as far above expectation last season, and both teams fall hard in these projections for exactly the same reason: this one builds from the chances rather than the scoreboard, so almost none of that +24.9 survives.
The roster then went backwards on top of that. Their net change of -31 is the worst in the division, with Mavrik Bourque going to Nashville at 38 projected and Ilya Lyubushkin and Alexander Petrovic out, against Joel Kiviranta arriving from Colorado at 17 as the only addition of note.
None of that makes them bad. They still took 51.1 percent of the expected goals, fourth in the division. Jason Robertson projects 104 and Mikko Rantanen 98, up 21 on last season. In goal, Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith come out at +13 goals.
There is real upside left too, second most in the division. Roope Hintz missed 29 games and projects 71, up 27, with Matt Duchene out 25 and Jamie Benn 22.
5. Nashville Predators: 90 points, 42-36-6
Nashville added more than anyone except Minnesota and still finish fifth.
Five players arrive at 21 projected points or better: Bourque from Dallas at 38, Ross Colton at 34, Alexander Kerfoot at 30, Jack Drury at 28 and Nils Hoglander at 21. Erik Haula left for Los Angeles at 35. The net is +26, fourth in the division.
The problem is what those players are joining. Nashville gave up more chances than they created all season: 47.5 percent of the expected goals and a -25.4 differential. Only Chicago was worse in the division.
They are also old. Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi, Matt Duchene and Jonathan Marchessault are all 36 next season, with Ryan O'Reilly at 35. Filip Forsberg projects 74 at 32, and Luke Evangelista at 24 is the only man in their top six under 30.
The crease is a genuine plus at +12, and the split inside it is worth knowing: Justus Annunen saved 8.0 goals above expected, while Juuse Saros finished at -1.4.
The next wave is a lot younger. Matthew Wood is 21, dressed 71 times last season and projects 36. Brady Martin is 19 with three NHL games to his name and projects 29. A core this old does not get to be patient.
6. St. Louis Blues: 87 points, 38-35-11
St. Louis were the only side in the Central to concede meaningfully more than their chances said they should.
They allowed 254 goals against 239 expected while their finishing sat dead level. All of that gap was the crease.
So the question is who plays. Jordan Binnington finished at -22.7 goals saved above expected on 1,007 shots. Joel Hofer was +3.4 on 1,249, and he did it in more games, more starts and busier nights: 46 to 41, 43 starts to 39, .910 against .873.
We have given Hofer the net, and it is worth six points. Run this with Binnington starting and St. Louis come out at 81. Run it with Hofer and they come out at 87, up past Winnipeg into sixth. No other goalie call in the division moves a team that far.
The skaters were close to even: 49.0 percent of the expected goals, a -9.8 differential, fifth in the division.
The summer was busy in both directions. Mason McTavish arrives from Anaheim at 53 projected and Connor McMichael from Washington at 49, while Jordan Kyrou left for Washington at 53. The net is -10.
The young core is the reason to watch. Robert Thomas projects 81, up 17. Dylan Holloway missed 23 games and projects 69, up 18. Jimmy Snuggerud projects 67 at 22, up 16.
7. Winnipeg Jets: 83 points, 36-37-11
Winnipeg barely moved, and the number that matters is in the net.
They were outscored by 27 last season while the chances said -13. A team that underperforms by that much usually gets points handed back here. Winnipeg get two.
The crease is why. Connor Hellebuyck finished at -3.7 goals saved above expected on 1,545 shots and Stuart Skinner at -6.8, which puts the tandem at -12, the worst in the division. For a goaltender who just won Olympic gold with the United States, that is the most surprising number in the Central.
In front of them they took 48.6 percent of the expected goals with a -13.4 differential, and underfinished by 8.8 goals on top of that.
The summer was close to silent, and both additions were defencemen: Jack St. Ivany from Pittsburgh at 23 projected, and Mario Ferraro from San Jose on a three-year deal at $4M. The net is +6. Nothing arrived up front.
Mark Scheifele projects 89 and Kyle Connor 88. The one trending hard the right way is Cole Perfetti, who projects 50, up 18, and signed through 2031 at $6M this summer. Winnipeg have tied themselves to him for five more years.
Their talent-returning figure is the lowest in the division. There is no hidden season inside this roster.
8. Chicago Blackhawks: 78 points, 33-39-12
Chicago had the worst underlying numbers in the NHL and gain six points anyway.
They took 44.1 percent of the expected goals and ran a -57.5 differential. Both are the worst in the league, with only Vancouver anywhere near them.
What lifts them is everything else. Their net roster change of +27 is third in the division, and the headline is a homecoming: Patrick Kane comes back to Chicago at 38, to the club he won three Cups with, at 63 projected. Bowen Byram arrives from Buffalo at 42, against Andre Burakovsky and Ilya Mikheyev leaving at 35 apiece and Louis Crevier at 22.
Connor Bedard projects 99, up 24 on last season, but a shoulder injury from the summer keeps him out to start the season, with no timeline on how long. Spencer Knight saved 9.2 goals above expected in a crease that still lands at -3.
Then there is the number we should be straight about. Their talent-returning figure is the highest in the division, and most of it is one 19-year-old: Anton Frondell played 12 NHL games last season and projects 61. That is not a star coming back from injury, it is a bet on a player who has barely played.
78 points assumes both of those land.
Every projection driving these numbers, sortable, with availability and finishing on each player.
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