We are running through all 32 teams, three fantasy players at a time, two new teams every weekday until all 32 are done. Today it is Winnipeg and San Jose, and the six players below run from 4th on our board to 165th.
The difference is shape, not quality. Winnipeg put three players inside our top 100, and all three have played at least 94% of their team's games over the last five seasons. San Jose have the fourth-ranked player in hockey and then a drop of 393 fantasy points to their second man. Winnipeg's own first-to-third gap is 173.
Fantasy points below are Yahoo-style scoring from our 2026-27 projections. The band after each is that player's floor and ceiling, not a guarantee.
Kyle Connor, Winnipeg
Connor has scored 93, 80, 61, 97 and 92 points across the last five seasons, and the 61 came in the only year he missed real time. Our projection has him at 88 on 277 shots, the third-highest total in the league, and 24 power play points. He is 29 and signed through 2034, so nothing about his situation is in question. This is the most boring first-round-adjacent pick in the series so far, and that is the compliment.
Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg
Scheifele just put up 103 points at 32, the best season of his career, on 36 goals and 67 assists. Our projection pulls him back to 89. That is not a knock, it is what the model does with a career year at that age: his previous four were 87, 72, 68 and 70, so 103 is the outlier. An 89 would still be the second-best season he has had in 15 NHL years. He is 33 now. Draft the very good year, not a repeat of the best one.
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg
Morrissey has gone 76, 69, 62 and 55 points over four seasons, and our projection stops the slide at 60. What holds him up is that he does everything: 47 projected assists, 19 power play points and 126 blocks, which is the second category most managers forget to fill. He is 31 and on $6.25M through 2028. A defenceman who touches four categories is worth more than his point total looks.
Macklin Celebrini, San Jose
Celebrini is the highest-ranked player in this article, and it is not close. He went from 63 points as a rookie to 115 last season, and our projection adds another eight to reach 123 on 48 goals and 38 power play points. His ceiling is 1102 fantasy points, which no one else in the series approaches. He is 20 and playing out the last season of a $975,000 entry deal. His $18.8M extension kicks in next year, which would be the largest cap hit in the league as the books stand today. If he is on the board when you pick, the decision is already made.
Will Smith, San Jose
Smith went 45 then 59 points in his first two seasons and our projection has him at 75. He is 21. His band runs 490 to 713, a 223-point spread, which is the model saying it does not know yet whether he is a second-line scorer or Celebrini's running mate for a decade. He has also played 143 of a possible 164 games in two seasons, the lowest rate of the six here. What is not in doubt is the opportunity: San Jose have nobody else to give those minutes to.
Tyler Toffoli, San Jose
Toffoli is 34 and the only player here our projection does not expect to change. His band is 456 to 553, 97 fantasy points wide and tighter than four out of five skaters on our board, and the 217 projected shots are what carry him. He scored 54 then 49 points in his two San Jose seasons and we have him at 52. There is no upside case and there is barely a downside one, and in the last third of a draft that is a real thing to want.
What we would actually do
Celebrini first, and there is no argument. Connor is the safest 90-point season on this page. After that it depends what you need: Scheifele if you want the name and will accept a step back from 103, Morrissey if your blocks and assists are thin, Smith if you have a roster spot to gamble with, Toffoli if you need a floor and nothing else. One warning for Winnipeg. Connor Hellebuyck is the fifth-best fantasy asset on his own team by our numbers, 187th overall, because we project 21 wins and minus 4.3 goals saved above expected. The name is worth more than the projection this year.
Floor, ceiling and availability on all 406 skaters and 80 goalies, sortable.
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