Let's break down this series:
- Game 1: 4-2 Buffalo (Series 1-0 Sabres)
- Game 2: 5-1 Montreal (Series 1-1)
- Game 3: 6-2 Montreal (Series 2-1 Canadiens)
- Game 4: 3-2 Buffalo (Series 2-2)
- Game 5: 6-3 Montreal (Series 3-2 Canadiens)
- Game 6: 8-3 Buffalo (Series 3-3)
This series had one storyline of great goaltending, but these goalies are getting beat a lot. The minimum goals scored in any game this series is 5, with a high of 11. Coming out of Game 6, we saw 4 goalies take the ice. Both Lyon and Dobes were pulled, giving way to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Jacob Fowler.
The Goalie Question
I expect Buffalo to go back to Luukkonen in Game 7, while Montreal sticks with Dobes. Fowler has seen limited action this playoff run and virtually none during the regular season. That puts real pressure on Luukkonen, who hasn't been sharp in these playoffs. He'll have a short leash tonight. If he struggles early, don't be surprised to see Lindy Ruff pull the trigger on Lyon.
Sabres Lineup Sticks
Ruff made significant line changes heading into Game 6 to address Buffalo's depth issues and it worked. Eight goals later, the new combinations looked like the right call. Expect the same lineup in Game 7.
Where is Alex Tuch?
Sabres fans are asking one question: where is Alex Tuch? In a game Buffalo scored 8 goals, one of their top performers didn't register a single point and finished a -1. Hockey is a short-memory sport though. All of that gets erased if Tuch finds the back of the net tonight and Buffalo closes it out.
Why Playing in Buffalo Favors Montreal
Montreal comes in after getting run over in Game 6 on home ice. Their home record this playoffs tells the story: 2-4, outscored 19-16. On the road? A completely different team. They are 5-2 with a +7 goal differential, outscoring opponents 24-17. Playing in Buffalo tonight actually favors Montreal based on how this team has performed all postseason.
They've also been here before. Montreal eliminated Tampa Bay on the road in a Game 7 in Round 1. The experience is there. But they'll need a far better effort than what we saw in Game 6, when they lost the faceoff battle, got outshot by 14, and took 3 more penalties than Buffalo. A complete reversal of how they'd controlled the series up to that point.
The desperation must show up. Montreal's season is on the line tonight.
Prediction
My prediction: 4-2 Buffalo. Alex Tuch gets the game winner for the 3rd goal. Who doesn't love that storyline?
The Bigger Picture
Success doesn't stop in Round 2. You'll see these teams again. A second-round exit is a building block, but with the talent on both rosters, losing shouldn't feel like an option. The Atlantic only gets stronger and getting a mental edge over your division rivals is an advantage that carries into next year.