Our third power rankings of 2026-27, with teams 7 to 11 games in.
Same method as Week 2: this season's results only, measured three ways, points percentage (50%), expected goals share (30%) and the last 10 games (20%). Opp covers this week's games, Oct. 15 to 20, scored at each opponent's current rank. Chg is places moved since Week 2.
| # | Team | Chg | Record | Home | Away | GF | GA | Pts% | xGF% | Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Carolina Hurricanes | - | 8-2-1 | 2-1-1 | 6-1-0 | 42 | 27 | .773 | 62.0 | 27.3 |
| 2 |   Edmonton Oilers | - | 7-1-1 | 2-1-1 | 5-0-0 | 41 | 27 | .833 | 50.7 | 5.0 |
| 3 |   Tampa Bay Lightning | ▲4 | 7-2-0 | 5-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 31 | 23 | .778 | 54.7 | 16.7 |
| 4 |   Utah Mammoth | ▲1 | 7-3-0 | 3-1-0 | 4-2-0 | 38 | 31 | .700 | 59.8 | 10.0 |
| 5 |   Vegas Golden Knights | ▼2 | 8-3-0 | 5-2-0 | 3-1-0 | 44 | 30 | .727 | 57.0 | 20.0 |
| 6 |   New York Rangers | ▼2 | 7-3-1 | 6-0-0 | 1-3-1 | 33 | 24 | .682 | 55.2 | 21.0 |
| 7 |   Minnesota Wild | ▲5 | 6-2-2 | 4-0-0 | 2-2-2 | 31 | 25 | .700 | 54.7 | 17.0 |
| 8 |   Boston Bruins | ▲3 | 7-2-1 | 3-1-0 | 4-1-1 | 36 | 22 | .750 | 46.3 | 21.7 |
| 9 |   Florida Panthers | ▲6 | 5-2-2 | 2-1-0 | 3-1-2 | 30 | 25 | .667 | 55.6 | 22.5 |
| 10 |   Ottawa Senators | - | 6-3-0 | 3-1-0 | 3-2-0 | 24 | 23 | .667 | 49.0 | 22.0 |
| 11 |   New Jersey Devils | ▲5 | 5-4-0 | 4-2-0 | 1-2-0 | 29 | 30 | .556 | 58.8 | 13.7 |
| 12 |   Dallas Stars | ▲9 | 5-3-1 | 2-2-0 | 3-1-1 | 23 | 15 | .611 | 52.0 | 18.5 |
| 13 |   Seattle Kraken | ▼4 | 6-3-1 | 2-1-0 | 4-2-1 | 39 | 34 | .650 | 45.8 | 12.0 |
| 14 |   New York Islanders | ▲9 | 5-3-1 | 4-1-0 | 1-2-1 | 27 | 20 | .611 | 49.9 | 17.3 |
| 15 |   Colorado Avalanche | ▼9 | 5-4-1 | 3-1-1 | 2-3-0 | 41 | 31 | .550 | 53.5 | 22.3 |
| 16 |   Montreal Canadiens | ▲3 | 4-3-2 | 3-2-1 | 1-1-1 | 30 | 34 | .556 | 52.9 | 20.5 |
| 17 |   Toronto Maple Leafs | ▲5 | 5-4-2 | 3-3-1 | 2-1-1 | 38 | 35 | .545 | 49.6 | 20.5 |
| 18 |   Buffalo Sabres | ▲2 | 4-3-2 | 3-2-0 | 1-1-2 | 27 | 34 | .556 | 50.0 | 16.5 |
| 19 |   Winnipeg Jets | ▼11 | 4-3-2 | 2-2-1 | 2-1-1 | 24 | 26 | .556 | 48.8 | 17.3 |
| 20 |   Washington Capitals | ▼2 | 5-4-0 | 4-2-0 | 1-2-0 | 30 | 29 | .556 | 46.9 | 19.5 |
| 21 |   Nashville Predators | ▲3 | 3-2-3 | 2-2-1 | 1-0-2 | 23 | 24 | .562 | 47.6 | 22.5 |
| 22 |   St. Louis Blues | ▼9 | 4-4-1 | 2-0-1 | 2-4-0 | 29 | 29 | .500 | 50.8 | 15.7 |
| 23 |   San Jose Sharks | ▲3 | 5-4-1 | 2-2-0 | 3-2-1 | 27 | 35 | .550 | 43.8 | 19.5 |
| 24 |   Detroit Red Wings | ▲3 | 3-3-3 | 3-3-1 | 0-0-2 | 23 | 28 | .500 | 49.2 | 22.0 |
| 25 |   Anaheim Ducks | ▼11 | 4-5-0 | 1-3-0 | 3-2-0 | 26 | 29 | .444 | 44.9 | 9.3 |
| 26 |   Pittsburgh Penguins | ▼9 | 3-6-1 | 2-1-0 | 1-5-1 | 33 | 38 | .350 | 50.5 | 8.0 |
| 27 |   Columbus Blue Jackets | ▼2 | 3-5-0 | 3-3-0 | 0-2-0 | 20 | 29 | .375 | 45.7 | 10.0 |
| 28 |   Los Angeles Kings | - | 1-4-2 | 0-3-0 | 1-1-2 | 17 | 27 | .286 | 50.4 | 14.0 |
| 29 |   Chicago Blackhawks | ▲1 | 3-6-0 | 3-2-0 | 0-4-0 | 21 | 36 | .333 | 39.6 | 15.5 |
| 30 |   Philadelphia Flyers | ▲2 | 2-6-3 | 2-2-2 | 0-4-1 | 17 | 36 | .318 | 39.0 | 16.3 |
| 31 |   Calgary Flames | ▼2 | 2-6-0 | 1-3-0 | 1-3-0 | 17 | 37 | .250 | 46.7 | 3.0 |
| 32 |   Vancouver Canucks | ▼1 | 2-8-1 | 1-3-0 | 1-5-1 | 33 | 51 | .227 | 36.7 | 4.3 |
The top five
1. Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina stays No. 1 despite losing 3-2 in Calgary on Sunday, and the gap is not close. The Hurricanes lead two of our three measures outright: their 62.0% share of expected goals is the best in the league, and so is their 8-2-0 run over the last 10. Edmonton has the better points percentage, but nobody else is near Carolina on the other two.
The week was a 2-1 road trip. Nikolaj Ehlers had 3 goals and 4 points in the three games, and Logan Stankoven added 2 goals, 2 assists and 13 shots. The loss in Calgary came against Devin Cooley, who stopped 34 of 36.
Is it real? Yes. Carolina has scored 42 goals on 43.5 expected and allowed 27 on 26.6, so both ends sit right on what the chances say. They are doing it with Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall and Jordan Staal all on injured reserve. Next week: No. 2 Edmonton on Thursday, then No. 22 St. Louis and No. 8 Boston.
2. Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid had 9 points in three games this week and leads the NHL with 26, eight more than anyone else. Leon Draisaitl scored 4 times. The Oilers split a home-and-home with No. 4 Utah, losing 4-2 and winning 6-2, then beat No. 7 Minnesota 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday.
The caution from last week has grown. Edmonton has scored 41 goals on 28.2 expected, almost 13 more than its chances, by far the biggest gap in the league. Its 50.7% expected goals share is the lowest in our top seven. The defending side is fine, 27 allowed on 27.4 expected, with Devon Levi at 5-1-0 while Frederik Andersen is on injured reserve.
Next week: No. 1 Carolina on Thursday, then No. 17 Toronto and No. 24 Detroit, all at home.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay climbs four places, the biggest move in the top five, after a 3-0 week that ended with a 6-2 win in Vegas. Nikita Kucherov had 3 goals, 2 assists and 17 shots in the three games, and Brandon Hagel matched his 3 goals. The Lightning have won three straight.
Is it real? The offense is: 31 goals on 31.7 expected. The defense is getting help. Tampa Bay has allowed 23 goals on 26.3 expected, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is 3.2 goals above expected by our numbers. The soft spot is the power play, at 12.9%. Next week is two road games, No. 15 Colorado and No. 4 Utah.
4. Utah Mammoth
Utah moves up a place on the best power play in the league, 36.1%, and the second-best expected goals share, 59.8%. Clayton Keller scored 3 times this week as the Mammoth won 4-2 in Edmonton, lost the rematch 6-2 at home, then edged No. 26 Pittsburgh 5-4.
The record is, if anything, underselling them. Utah has scored 38 goals on 38.0 expected, dead on, but allowed 31 on 25.6, more than five over. That is the goaltending: Karel Vejmelka is 1.4 goals below expected and Sebastian Cossa 3.2. Next week: No. 13 Seattle, No. 3 Tampa Bay and No. 7 Minnesota.
5. Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas drops two places after Tuesday's 6-2 home loss to Tampa Bay, but the week was mostly good. The Golden Knights beat Calgary and Pittsburgh by the same 6-2 score first, and Mark Stone had 5 goals and 7 points in the three games. Jack Eichel added 5 points and Mitch Marner 5 assists.
Is it real? Mostly. Leaving out a shootout winner, Vegas has scored 43 goals on 38.7 expected, about four more than its chances, and allowed 30 on 29.2. Adin Hill is 4-0 and Carter Hart 4-3. Next week is a soft one on paper: No. 22 St. Louis and No. 27 Columbus on the road, then No. 10 Ottawa at home.
The bottom five
28. Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles finally won, 5-2 in Washington on Tuesday, its first win of the season in its seventh game. Adrian Kempe scored twice and Darcy Kuemper made 30 saves. The Kings have played the fewest games in the league.
The chances say they are better than 1-4-2. Los Angeles has a 50.4% expected goals share, ahead of every team below it. It has scored 17 goals on 20.4 expected, and allowed 27 on 20.0, seven too many, with Kuemper 3.7 goals below expected. The penalty kill, at 64.0%, is second-worst in the league. Next week is four road games: No. 14 Islanders, No. 11 New Jersey, No. 6 Rangers and No. 29 Chicago.
29. Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago played only twice this week, beating No. 19 Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime and then losing 4-0 to No. 12 Dallas. Connor Bedard, who made his season debut on Oct. 13, had a goal and an assist across the two.
The problem is territory. Chicago has 39.6% of expected goals, third-lowest in the league, and has allowed 36 goals on 32.9 expected. Spencer Knight started both games this week and is about even with expected on the season, so the goals against are mostly the chances. Next week is all at home: No. 16 Montreal, No. 9 Florida and No. 28 Los Angeles.
30. Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia climbs out of last with its first two-game winning streak, 3-1 over No. 10 Ottawa and 3-2 over No. 15 Colorado, after a 2-1 loss in Detroit to open the week. Matvei Michkov scored 4 of his 6 goals this week.
It is still the finishing. The Flyers have scored 17 goals on 24.7 expected, almost eight short, tied for the fewest goals in the league. The goaltending is not the issue: they have allowed about four fewer goals than their chances, and Joseph Woll is 3.3 above expected. Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen are all on injured reserve. Next week: No. 18 Buffalo tonight, then No. 25 Anaheim and No. 27 Columbus at home.
31. Calgary Flames
Calgary handed No. 1 Carolina one of its two regulation losses, 3-2 on Sunday, with Devin Cooley stopping 34 of 36. Three nights earlier it lost 6-2 in Vegas. The Flames drop two places on a 2-6-0 record.
Both ends are about eight goals off. Calgary has scored 17 on 24.9 expected, the biggest shortfall in the league, and allowed 37 on 28.5, the biggest overage. Dustin Wolf is at .834 and 7.9 goals below expected; Cooley has been better, 1-2-0 with an .868. Next week is three at home: No. 7 Minnesota, No. 24 Detroit and No. 17 Toronto.
32. Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver drops to last, 0-7-1 since its win over Calgary on Oct. 3. This week was an overtime loss in Florida, a 4-2 loss in Tampa and a 6-3 home loss to No. 1 Carolina on Tuesday.
The scoring is fine: 33 goals on 25.2 expected, about eight more than the chances. Everything else is not. Vancouver has the lowest expected goals share in the league, 36.7%, the most goals against, 51, and the worst penalty kill, 63.9%. The goaltending splits in two. Leevi Merilainen is 4.6 goals above expected; Kevin Lankinen is at .807 and 11.9 below, with Thatcher Demko on injured reserve. Next week: No. 24 Detroit and No. 7 Minnesota at home, then No. 25 Anaheim.
Week 4 is next Wednesday.
