Carolina wins the Metropolitan Division in 2026-27 with 117 points. New Jersey climbs 17 to 104, Washington holds third at 101, and the Rangers finish last at 87 while gaining ten points on last season.
Below is every number behind that, and the five inputs that produced it ranked one through eight.
Projected Metropolitan Division standings 2026-27
| # | Team | Record | Points | 2025-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 52-19-13 | 117 | 113 | +4 |
| 2 | New Jersey Devils | 47-27-10 | 104 | 87 | +17 |
| 3 | Washington Capitals | 46-29-9 | 101 | 95 | +6 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 43-28-13 | 99 | 98 | +1 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Flyers | 44-30-10 | 98 | 98 | 0 |
| 6 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 42-31-11 | 95 | 92 | +3 |
| 7 | New York Islanders | 39-31-14 | 92 | 91 | +1 |
| 8 | New York Rangers | 37-34-13 | 87 | 77 | +10 |
Two of these need explaining before anything else. Pittsburgh made the largest roster gain in the division and finishes fourth. Washington was outchanced across the whole season and finishes third. Both come down to who is in the net.
The five criteria, ranked
- 1
Carolina Hurricanes - 2
Pittsburgh Penguins - 3
New Jersey Devils - 4
Philadelphia Flyers - 5
Columbus Blue Jackets - 6
Washington Capitals - 7
New York Islanders - 8
New York Rangers
- 1Pittsburgh Penguins
- 2Washington Capitals
- 3New Jersey Devils
- 4Columbus Blue Jackets
- 5Carolina Hurricanes
- 6New York Rangers
- 7New York Islanders
- 8Philadelphia Flyers
- 1New York Islanders
- 2Washington Capitals
- 3New York Rangers
- 4Columbus Blue Jackets
- 5New Jersey Devils
- 6Philadelphia Flyers
- 7Carolina Hurricanes
- 8Pittsburgh Penguins
- 1Philadelphia Flyers
- 2Pittsburgh Penguins
- 3New York Islanders
- 4New York Rangers
- 5Washington Capitals
- 6New Jersey Devils
- 7Carolina Hurricanes
- 8Columbus Blue Jackets
- 1Carolina Hurricanes
- 2New Jersey Devils
- 3Washington Capitals
- 4Pittsburgh Penguins
- 5Philadelphia Flyers
- 6Columbus Blue Jackets
- 7New York Islanders
- 8New York Rangers
1. Carolina Hurricanes: 117 points, 52-19-13
The defending Stanley Cup champions, and they did not back into it. Carolina went 16-3 through four rounds, sweeping Ottawa and Philadelphia before beating Montreal in five and Vegas in six.
The regular season said the same thing. They took 56.6 percent of the expected goals, the largest share in the NHL, and their +70 expected goal differential was the biggest in it. The next best in the East was Ottawa at +52.
They then did almost nothing all summer. Their net roster change is -1 projected point, the quietest in the division. Sebastian Aho projects 82, Seth Jarvis 81 and Andrei Svechnikov 77, and all three are back.
The one change is in net, and it is the reason 117 is not higher. Frederik Andersen carried three rounds and then signed with Edmonton, but Carolina had already turned to Brandon Bussi in the Cup Final and he closed the door on Vegas. He was the better bet all along: 39 games, 31-6-2, a .895 save percentage and +2.5 goals saved above expected, at $1.9M through 2029. Our projection still puts the tandem at only +6, seventh of eight in the division, because those 39 games were his first real NHL workload. That is the one number we would happily be wrong about.
2. New Jersey Devils: 104 points, 47-27-10
The biggest riser in the division, and almost all of it is one number.
New Jersey scored 226 goals against 262 expected, the worst finishing in the NHL last season. They created chances worth a +13 differential and finished at -27. This projection is built from the chances, not the scoreboard, so that 40-goal gap is most of the 17 points. The model is not predicting the Devils improve. It is refusing to believe last season's results.
Jack Hughes is the bet that it corrects. He played 61 games, scored 77 points, and projects at 114, the largest individual projection in the Metropolitan.
The crease looks ordinary until you check it. Jake Allen posted a .904 save percentage, but the shots he faced were worth an expected .894, so he finished at +9.45 goals saved above expected. Their tandem projects +11.
The roster churned more than its net +35 suggests. Nemec, Cotter and Palat all left, 85 projected points charged against them, with Anthony Mantha in from Pittsburgh at 53 and Evan Rodrigues from Florida at 38. Mantha is worth a flag: he scored 33 goals on 19.3 expected, so a team betting on its finishing to correct upward has added the player most likely to correct down.
What helps is that the shortfall was broad rather than one man. 20 of the 27 skaters who dressed for New Jersey finished below expected. If that was variance, 104 is fair. If it was the personnel, this is the softest number in the division.
3. Washington Capitals: 101 points, 46-29-9
Washington are third because of their goaltender.
They were outchanced all season: 49.3 percent of the expected goals, sixth in the division, and a -7.1 differential. They still finished +23 on the scoreboard and took 95 points.
Their finishing was dead neutral at -1.8 goals. They had a brick wall behind them: 238 goals allowed against 269.9 expected, with Logan Thompson alone saving +32.7 goals above expected, the best mark in the NHL. Goaltending accounts for 93 percent of the difference between the goals Washington gave up and the goals they should have.
No goalie in the league saved more, and he did it facing 1,585 shots, third most in the NHL. Our projection carries goaltending forward and regresses finishing to zero, so that is the number Washington keep. They come out at +20 in the crease, second in the division.
The roster churned heavily too, second most in the division behind the Rangers. In came Alex Tuch from Buffalo at 68 projected, Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis at 60 and Boone Jenner from Columbus at 48, against McMichael, Dowd and van Riemsdyk leaving. Net +38, the second largest in the Metropolitan.
The health bounce back is Pierre-Luc Dubois. He missed 53 games last season and projects 57 points coming into 2026-27.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins: 99 points, 43-28-13
Pittsburgh gain a single point, and that hides more movement than anywhere else in the division.
Start with what comes out. They scored 290 goals on 273 expected, the fifth-largest overfinishing in the NHL, so last season's 98 points flattered them. What goes back in is the largest roster gain in the division at +47 projected points, and the second-best expected goal differential in the Metropolitan at +16.6.
Then the crease takes it away again. Arturs Silovs finished at a .888 save percentage against an expected .897, which is 9.3 goals worse than expected, and he projects at -15.9 over 62 starts. Their tandem lands at -17, and the gap is not close: the next-worst crease in the division is 24 goals better.
The additions are real. Andrei Kuzmenko arrives from Los Angeles at 45 projected, Nicholas Robertson from Toronto at 34 and Hendrix Lapierre from Washington at 27, against Anthony Mantha leaving for New Jersey.
Only Philadelphia is owed more by players who did not dress last season. Evgeni Malkin missed 26 games and projects 74, Rickard Rakell missed 22 and projects 61, and Kuzmenko missed 30. Sidney Crosby projects 81 at 39 years old.
That is the shape of the number: +47 in from the roster, -17 back out in the crease.
5. Philadelphia Flyers: 98 points, 44-30-10
Philadelphia finish where they finished last season, on 98 points, having taken a different route to get there. They also land a third of a point behind Pittsburgh, the team they put out in six games last spring. Treat fourth and fifth as a coin flip, because that is what the margin is.
The skater play is solid: 51.2 percent of the expected goals and a +12 differential, fourth in the division. Dan Vladar saved 7.6 goals above expected last season and projects at +10.1, putting their crease at +9.
They did not go backwards so much as stay still. The summer brought in Joseph Woll from Toronto, Noel Acciari at 23 projected and Simon Benoit at 10, against Emil Andrae leaving for Toronto and Noah Juulsen for Colorado. It is a splash in the way an Olympic diver makes one.
What holds them at 98 is the youngest upside in the division. Their talent-returning number is the highest in the Metropolitan and most of it is one 20-year-old: Porter Martone played nine NHL games last season and projects at 74 points. Tyson Foerster played 29 and projects 49. That is not a star coming back from injury, it is a bet on players who have barely played.
Matvei Michkov projects 64, Travis Konecny 73 and Trevor Zegras 70. If Martone is what we think he is, this number is low. If he is a year away, it is high.
6. Columbus Blue Jackets: 95 points, 42-31-11
Columbus are the most even team in the division and second most even in the league: 49.9 percent of the expected goals and a -0.7 differential across a whole season. Only Buffalo sat closer to the middle.
They were a little unlucky on top of it, scoring 246 goals against 256 expected, so 92 points slightly undersold them.
Valeri Nichushkin arrives from Colorado at 62 projected points, comfortably their biggest addition, with Ryan Lomberg in from Calgary at 14. Boone Jenner went the other way to Washington and Mason Marchment signed with San Jose, leaving a net gain of +10.
The crease is a genuine strength that gets talked about far less than it should, and it is one man. Jet Greaves saved 15.3 goals above expected on 1,534 shots. Elvis Merzlikins was -10.8 behind the same team, and the tandem still comes out at +11, fourth in the division.
Kirill Marchenko projects 73 and Adam Fantilli 67 at 22.
What they do not have is anything coming back. Their talent-returning number is the lowest in the division: not one player in their top nine missed 20 games. 95 points is what this roster is, with no hidden season inside it.
7. New York Islanders: 92 points, 39-31-14
The Islanders have the division's best crease and the second-worst team in front of it.
They took 48.1 percent of the expected goals and finished at -20.4, seventh in the division, then underfinished on top of that: 229 goals against 253 expected.
They still took 91 points, and the crease is the whole reason. The Islanders allowed 236 goals against 273.7 expected, and Ilya Sorokin alone saved 27.4 goals above expected, second only to Thompson. He projects at +28.4 and the tandem lands at +26, the best in the Metropolitan.
The summer made the job harder. Anders Lee and his 43 projected points went to Utah and Maxim Shabanov to Minnesota, against a single meaningful arrival in Matias Maccelli from Toronto at 47. The net is -17.
Mathew Barzal projects 74 and Bo Horvat 66, but the player who changes this team is Matthew Schaefer. He scored 59 points as an 18-year-old defenceman, 15th among every blueliner in the NHL, second on his own team, and he dressed all 82 games doing it. He projects 69 at 19, on a contract worth under a million.
Kyle Palmieri missed 57 games on top of that, the largest single piece of upside left on the roster.
92 points is Sorokin holding up a team that gets outchanced most nights. Schaefer is the reason that may not be the story for long.
8. New York Rangers: 87 points, 37-34-13
The Rangers finish last in the division and still gain ten points, which needs both halves said out loud.
They gave up more chances than they created by a wider margin than anyone: 47.0 percent of the expected goals and a -28.9 differential, both last in the Metropolitan.
Igor Shesterkin is the reason the number is not far worse. He saved 16.3 goals above expected and projects at +18, putting their crease at +17, third in the division.
The roster turned over more than anyone's in the division and barely moved. Vincent Trocheck went to Utah at 51 projected, with Conor Sheary, Jonny Brodzinski and Will Borgen behind him. In came Pavel Dorofeyev from Vegas at 64, Oliver Bjorkstrand from Tampa Bay at 41, Sean Durzi from Utah at 39 and Marcus Pettersson from Vancouver at 23. The net is -5.
The ten points come from inside the room rather than from the summer. Adam Fox missed 27 games and projects 76, up 23 on last season. J.T. Miller projects 71, up 18. Gabe Perreault is 21, missed 33 games as a rookie and projects 46, up 19.
Every projection driving these numbers, sortable, with availability and finishing on each player.
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